Inflation Expectations in the U.S. in Fall 1933

Abstract

We document how inflation expectations evolved in the United States during the fall of 1933using narrative evidence from historical news accounts and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts. We find that inflation expectations, after rising substantially during the spring of 1933, moderated in the fall in response to mixed messages from the Roosevelt Administration. The narrative accounts and our econometric model connect the dramatic swings in output growth in 1933–the rapid recovery in the spring and the setback in the fall–to these sudden movements in inflation expectations.